It’s not.
At least, that’s the view from this local who has lived here since 1982.
In my four plus decades in Grand Junction, I’ve never been stabbed, assaulted, mugged, robbed, or beaten up (even when I may have deserved it).
We did have someone break into our car (during the Christmas Parade of Lights no less), but I blame that on my wife leaving her purse on the seat in full view. Plus, if told that you’ll live in a town for a half century and only experience crime once, you’ll take it.
Still, the impression that the Grand Junction/Fruita/Palisade areas have higher than average crime remains. In fact, the search engine research site, SEM Rush reports the phrase, “Why is Grand Junction so dangerous?” gets searched 1,600 times per month!
As you’ll see in the graph further down below, Grand Junction is safer than Colorado as a whole. But since the idea that Grand Junction is dangerous gets spread around on social media, it’s worth slowing down and looking at the numbers and the neighborhood/behavioural context.
When you do, the full picture is less scary and more useful: some metrics show Grand Junction above certain averages, yet other measures, local trends, and nearby towns tell a more balanced story.
Personal behaviour comes into play too. I haven’t experienced dangerous crime in Grand Junction, but then again, I live in a quiet subdivision and don’t hang around bad parts of town at 3 AM trying to buy fentanyl. (Being boring is safer).
Below I compare Grand Junction with nearby Palisade, Clifton, and Fruita, and highlight why the “dangerous” shorthand doesn’t capture everything residents and visitors actually experience.
Is Grand Junction, Colorado Safe?
Data aggregators that compile FBI stats, along with local reports, show Grand Junction to be “safer” than average in terms of burglary, robbery, and motor vehicle theft. In other words, we won’t be the scene of a “Grand Theft Auto” game anytime soon.
But Grand Junction’s crime numbers are above national medians on several common measures, including 39% above average in overall violent crime, and aggravated assault.
Of course, numbers alone don’t capture the story. Crime maps show the vast majority of crime here is centered in small pockets of downtown and areas of Clifton.
As another example, history shows us that the chances of a Grand Junction resident being killed in a random murder are extremely low.
Per the FBI’s official Crime Data Explorer page, there have been 3 murders committed by “strangers” in Grand Junction over the past 5 years. An average of .6 homicides committed by strangers a year – this in a city of over 70,000 people.
I know for a fact that one of these three murders involved a homeless man sleeping outside at night. I don’t recall the circumstances surrounding the other two, however if we were to dive deeper into these other cases, (and I mean no disrespect to the families of those victims), we may likely find the victims were involved in more high-risk groups, meaning the homeless, drug users, those out late, etc.
Listen, I don’t work for the tourism bureau, and I don’t want to portray an overly rosy scenario. The truth is in some areas, Grand Junction’s crime rates are above national averages.
In terms of general “violent crime” (per FBI definitions), Grand Junction is above average. However our rate over the last five years is 140 instances of violent crime per 100,000 people.
That’s less than 1/5th of 1%.
(Related: Is Grand Junction a Good Place to Live?)
Again, if we were to break that down, I’m certain we’d find most of those .14 percent to be those in riskier situations, whether that be married to an abusive spouse, a drug user, homeless, etc.
What I’m trying to say is that statistically, the chances of a law-abiding citizen in Grand Junction – one who lives a normal, non-risky existence in a part of town not known for crime – becoming a victim of violent crime is extremely low.
Grand Junction’s Danger Level Compared to Fruita, Palisade, and Clifton
When we look at the other towns in the Grand Valley, Fruita, Palisade, and Clifton, interesting differences appear. Each town differs in size, economy, and day-to-day rhythm, and all of that shapes crime patterns.
And as is typical throughout the country, more rural parts have less crime.
Fruita is one of the safest towns in Mesa County. In fact, over the past five years, statistics from CrimeExplorer.com show Fruita’s rate of violent crime to be 66% less than the national average. I can’t remember the last time Fruita had a murder case, but official records show there hasn’t been a murder in Fruita within the past five years.
Palisade, which, like Fruita, is smaller and more rural than Grand Junction is just slightly higher than national averages in terms of violent crime. That number could be skewed, however, based on Palisade’s low population (2,600 residents).
There has been one murder in Palisade over the past five years – an arson crime when a man set his apartment on fire intentionally, killing a neighboring tenant.
Palisade is below national averages in terms of larceny and property crimes.
Clifton often gets a bad rap, but since it’s not an incorporated town, we cannot pull up any specific crime stats for the area. However Mesa County crime report maps show the Clifton area east of 32 Road to have some of the highest reported instances of crime in the county, (along with parts of downtown Grand Junction).
Crime Trends in Mesa County and Grand Junction
One of the most encouraging parts of the local picture is that law-enforcement reporting shows measurable, long-term progress in important areas. The graph below shows how Mesa County stacks up compared to Colorado on a crime per capita basis.
(Graph courtesy of the Mesa County Sheriff’s Department)
Per the Mesa County Sheriff’s Department:
“Violent crime in Mesa county has decreased by 3.67%, while it has increased by 71.37% statewide since 2008.” (Source: Mesa County Sheriff Crimewatch)
Conclusion
So is Grand Junction dangerous?
As a new transplant to GJ said on Reddit: “I came from the St. Louis area. I laugh when people talk about “crime” here.”
If you’re stiffing your drug dealer, or partying and drunk while driving in certain areas at 2:14 AM on a Friday night, you’re putting yourself in a position to be less safe. As your dad always said, “nothing ever good happens after midnight.”
But for the vast majority of us?
No. Grand Junction and Mesa County in general are not dangerous. I’ve lived here 43 years and have never had a break-in, nor do I know anyone who has ever had a break-in.
Yes, we’ve had tragic, random shootings, innocent lives killed by drunk/drugged drivers, spousal abuse, and other horrific crimes, but all in all, Grand Junction, Colorado is a safe, fun, friendly community.
(By Steve Beauregard. Top photo copyright GJFruita.com. Police photos courtesy of media releases by the Grand Junction Police Department)